Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 1.929043 2.034671 2.145249 2.270035 2.407424 2.554628 2.725016
2025-04-20 1.781898 1.930072 2.092391 2.284861 2.508807 2.763640 3.079233
2025-04-27 1.698140 1.874757 2.074750 2.320916 2.620006 2.977493 3.446616
2025-05-04 1.635045 1.832509 2.062113 2.353537 2.720827 3.179151 3.813298
2025-05-11 1.560024 1.768320 2.015436 2.336629 2.753375 3.292026 4.071498
2025-05-18 1.498110 1.714630 1.975988 2.322835 2.784712 3.401244 4.332100
2025-05-25 1.442494 1.664685 1.936917 2.304834 2.806229 3.495440 4.578324
2025-06-01 1.392813 1.619054 1.899923 2.285741 2.822699 3.581158 4.819037
2025-06-08 1.356964 1.588763 1.880335 2.287490 2.866480 3.707919 5.138611
2025-06-15 1.332235 1.571183 1.875781 2.308378 2.937560 3.880159 5.556792
2025-06-22 1.289468 1.528220 1.835335 2.276593 2.928497 3.926386 5.760656
2025-06-29 1.248302 1.485739 1.793580 2.240405 2.909768 3.954436 5.933706
2025-07-06 1.203495 1.437498 1.742892 2.189981 2.867694 3.943190 6.035789
2025-07-13 1.186253 1.425282 1.740687 2.209144 2.933667 4.117139 6.531295
2025-07-20 1.175529 1.421197 1.749159 2.243850 3.025849 4.344833 7.185961
2025-07-27 1.164207 1.415710 1.755158 2.274753 3.113628 4.574071 7.900846
2025-08-03 1.138686 1.389844 1.731224 2.258785 3.122423 4.658223 8.294936
2025-08-10 1.115538 1.366509 1.709980 2.245750 3.134926 4.750146 8.730907
2025-08-17 1.092443 1.342551 1.686953 2.228732 3.139203 4.826032 9.144631
2025-08-24 1.070230 1.319194 1.663988 2.210677 3.140296 4.895334 9.559591
2025-08-31 1.054849 1.304985 1.653828 2.212331 3.176038 5.039108 10.236685
2025-09-07 1.045330 1.298734 1.655045 2.232083 3.245360 5.261704 11.243636
2025-09-14 1.022481 1.272908 1.626404 2.202024 3.221363 5.278621 11.574428